After soaring fear of falling prices of plunge pork or after National Day

From the national perspective, the Ministry of Agriculture has targeted monitoring of 470 bazaar markets throughout the country. The recent increase in the price of live pigs has slowed down. In the first week of July, the average prices of pork, live pigs and warthogs decreased by 0.7, 0.9 and 0.6 respectively. percentage point. Monitoring by the National Development and Reform Commission indicated that farmers' enthusiasm for restocking has steadily increased. It is expected that the slaughter of pigs will gradually increase in the second half of the year and the market supply will be guaranteed.

After the price dropped, or until the 11th, a source from the meat business of COFCO told this reporter that the group’s investment of 1.5 billion yuan in the establishment of three million pig breeding bases in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Hubei has basically been completed. All are in accordance with the original plan and have not changed their strategy because of the fluctuation of pork prices."

The State Council recently decided that this year, the central government's support for the investment in the construction of large-scale standardized farms and communities will return to 2.5 billion yuan, which will be appropriately increased in the future. According to the plan, in the future, farmers will receive a subsidy of 100 yuan for each breeding sow. In order to promote the scale of live pig breeding, China will increase the credit support for large-scale breeding enterprises, and at the same time strengthen the public pig epidemic prevention system. According to the above-mentioned sources, the country's subsidies account for a relatively small proportion of the total investment in pig production. Plus subsidies are industry-wide, large-scale companies will not be interested in pig raising because of this. More is to consider the strategy, that is how to improve their operational efficiency."

The industry is concerned that the sudden drop after soaring According to Wang Zhicai, Director of the Animal Husbandry Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, the current year-on-year increase in pig prices is high, partly due to the fact that live hog prices were low in recent years in June and the base is low. It is expected that the hog prices will increase year-on-year in July and August this year. It will gradually fall back; with the stimulation of production and the adjustment of consumption, there is limited room for the continued rise of hog prices; however, due to the high cost of farming, pig prices will remain high overall.

Some people in the industry are concerned about the sharp fall in the price of pork. They believe that this year's pork price control measures are very similar to those in 2007. In 2007, the macro-control system controlled the rapid rise in the price of pork while also plunging pig prices from 2009 to 2010. Foreshadowing.

There is consensus in the industry that although the pork price inflection point may not come soon, it seems that it is difficult to maintain high prices in the second half of the year, but it is difficult to see a decline of more than 30%, and a drop of 5% to 20% is still possible. Analysts in the industry said that if the price of meat plunged, investors’ enthusiasm for raising pigs would be difficult to maintain. If we want to prevent pork from soaring in the long run, maintaining the continuity and stability of the policy is the key. In addition, government regulation and control policies should be changed to be passive and active. When the price of pork approaches a low point, it will focus on providing certain policy subsidy for large sow raising households and try to preserve the number of sows in hand so as to facilitate the rapid recovery of production and supply in the event of a shortage of pork supply. Stabilize the market.

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