High inventory + regulatory food prices will remain stable

Recently, agricultural products, especially grain futures, continued to strengthen. Yesterday, the domestic corn and soybean major contracts set a new record high, and wheat, early-season rice and other varieties maintained an upward trend; the external disk of US soybeans, U.S. corn, and U.S. wheat continued to fluctuate at a high level. The high level of discussion has led to extensive discussions. A number of experts conducted in-depth discussions on the prices of agricultural products and future trends at the “2010 Corn Industry Economic Summit Forum” sponsored by China Grains and Grain, and China Grain Network, stating that future domestic food prices will remain stable. .

At present, grain reserves are at a relatively high level

Expectations of production cuts caused by weather factors and market concerns about grain inventories have continued to push up the prices of food futures. However, industry sources stated that the current national grain inventories are at a relatively high level, and global grain inventories in 2010 were the highest since 2002. Therefore, Excessive speculation on reductions in food stocks is not rational.

Yao Ruikun, deputy general manager of China’s grain storage, told reporters that at present, the country’s grain inventories are at a relatively high level. From the end of last year to the end of June of this year, in order to stabilize the japonica rice and corn markets, the country has put in 3.1 million tons of japonica rice, 16.45 million tons of corn, and organized imports. Partial corn. Despite the current year-on-year decline in food inventories, the total amount of domestic grain inventories is still sufficient, and it still belongs to the year with high food stocks (an increase of 31.36% compared with 2003 when food prices fluctuate greatly). This year's autumn grain is listed. Before the domestic food supply was fully guaranteed.

Yao Ruikun said that this year's grain is expected to have a good harvest. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of summer grain in 2010 was 246.2 billion kilograms, close to the level of the previous year, and it was the third highest production year in history, second only to the 255.93 billion kilograms in 1997 and 2009. Of the 246.97 billion kilograms, the output of winter wheat was 217.6 billion kilograms, an increase of nearly 2 billion kilograms from the previous year, and the seventh consecutive year increased production.

Not only domestically, global grain inventories are also at a high level. According to the leading expert of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences and introduction by Li Xiande, the world’s cereal production will reach a record level in 2010, and overall consumer demand will increase. Global grain stocks will reach 533 million tons. From the highest level since 2002, the market's supply prospects are promising.

According to estimates by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization of China in June, world cereal production in 2010 will increase by 1.2% from the 2009 output to 2.28 billion tons, which is close to the record level in 2008. Rice and coarse grains will increase output by 4% and 1.4% respectively. Decrease of 0.9%. Annual total cereal demand was 2.268 billion tons, up 2% year-on-year.

Can high inventory hold down the price?

From the above data, we can see that both domestic and international grain inventories are at relatively high levels, so the impact of high inventory on futures prices is geometric. Insiders said that in general, high stocks will have a certain pressure on futures prices, making future domestic food prices Rising space is limited.

Yisheng Information Analyst Ocean told reporters: "Grain inventory is at a relatively high level, showing that the country has sufficient supply, and current demand is stable. This can, to some extent, curb the rise in the price."

Shanghai's mid-term analyst Jing Cheng believes that if food inventories are at a relatively high level, futures prices will not be subject to a long-term sharp rise. She analyzed that "If short-term factors make grain prices rise in a round, but due to abundant stocks It is possible to stabilize the price of excessive gains. Of course, such measures may not be immediate and may be imperceptible."

Chai Ning, analyst of China Grain Network, believes that the international and domestic high stocks should be treated differently. “International food stocks are huge, but they are scattered in many countries and it is difficult to regulate them; while individual countries’ stocks are too expensive. Inventories can be used to stabilize prices. Therefore, ample domestic stocks will play a certain degree of restraining effect on food prices; and the high international stocks will greatly reduce the effect of price suppression."

"Although the high stock prices usually correspond to lower prices, but in actual situations, high stock prices are not necessarily negative futures prices. If stocks are a hoarding act, they will also become a trigger for price increases." Said.

The overall high prices of agricultural products are steadily operating

The reporter learned that since 2009, the prices of most agricultural products in the world have remained generally stable, with grain prices being dynamically adjusted, and the prices have remained stable.

Compared with the declining trend of international prices, domestic prices are relatively stable. Prices of rice and wheat are still rising steadily. Corn prices are on a rising trend. The domestic prices of soybean, soybean oil and peanut oil are basically synchronized with the international market, and the trend is basically stable. According to industry sources, from the current situation, the domestic prices of major agricultural products should be higher than international prices, especially wheat and corn.

Li Xiande believes that although the global economy will further pick up in 2010, it is expected that under the background of looser supply and demand of agricultural products such as grain and soybeans, the normal demand for agricultural products in the world will not be greatly adjusted, and the international market prices will remain basically stable.

According to a report published by the International Monetary Fund in January 2010, world output in 2010 is expected to increase by 4%. Due to strong demand, oil prices may rise by more than 20% in 2010. Li Xiande believes that as energy prices may continue to rise, The growth of biofuels' demand for grain and oil may also become the main driving force for the price increase of agricultural products. Therefore, in the long term, the prices of international agricultural products will continue to rise at a high level.

National policies affect the trend of food prices

The rising prices of agricultural products have also led the country to increase its macro-control efforts. Many experts have emphasized the impact of national policies on food prices.

This year, the country proposed that “the increase in consumer prices should be controlled at about 3%; to promote the stable development of agriculture and farmers continue to increase income, further increase the minimum purchase price of grain, continue to implement the temporary purchase and storage policies of important agricultural products, so that farmers get more benefits” and other goals And policy measures. Chen Gang, deputy general manager of China Grain Reserve Fujian Branch, stated that under this circumstance, it is expected that changes in domestic corn market prices and supply-demand relations in the second half of the year will continue to be affected by national regulatory policies, and the corn market will continue to present a “policy city”. Characteristics. The temporary purchase of corn subsidies, auction sales policies, subsidy policies for deep-processing companies, and diversification of acquisition subjects are the main factors affecting the price of corn in the market.

Yao Ruikun believes that at present, global grain supply and demand are tightening and new changes have taken place in the grain purchasing market. The control of grain prices is still an important task of macro regulation and control in this year and in the later period. Grain and oil prices are crucial to stabilizing market expectations. Stable grain prices and markets are the country’s current The primary task of managing inflation expectations.

Taking corn as an example, Chen Gang pointed out that the next phase of grain control policy is still the dominant factor affecting the price trend of corn. It is expected that in the absence of major adjustments in the national grain macro-control policy, the future corn market price will remain high and volatile. Due to the year-on-year reduction of the State's temporary reserves of corn stocks, with the gradual recovery of the aquaculture industry and the tightening of supply in the north, the maize market in Fujian still has some room for growth, but the increase will not be too large. The market price is basically controlled by the state. Within a certain range, it is difficult to see sharp rises and falls.

An industry expert told reporters that domestic corn and other grain inventories are still relatively abundant, and domestic macroeconomic regulation and control has a solid material basis. It is expected that production will be reduced in 2009 and demand will gradually increase. Under the guidance of international markets, corn prices will be higher in the later period. The upward pressure, but if properly managed, there is limited room for corn prices.