Tangled global food prices

The United Nations (microblogging) FAO recently released news that the average world food price index in 2011 was 228, the highest since 1990. However, after the main grain price index reached 238, the highest level in history, in February last year, it has already shown a downward trend. The index for December 2011 was 211, which was a decrease of 2.4% from the previous period, fell to the lowest point since October 2010 and was approximately 11% lower than the unprecedented high in February.

Throughout 2011, the rapid rise in food prices has been a threat to the world, especially in third world countries. In Eastern Africa, there has been a famine in the past 60 years, and recent changes in international food prices may be conducive to the international community’s assistance to these countries.

In the past, a report from the United States stated that the country’s corn production and stocks were higher than previous forecasts, which led to a sharp drop in corn prices. From June 2011, corn prices in the international market have fallen by more than 23%.

The decrease in effective demand The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations attributed this change in food prices to a bumper harvest, which caused the price of cereals, sugar and fats to fall sharply. The analysis of the Financial Times in the United Kingdom pointed out that high grain prices have limited consumption, which has reduced demand.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, as of December 2011, the stock of corn reached 9.64 billion bushels, which is about 200 million bushels higher than previous forecasts. Industry sources pointed out that higher-than-expected corn inventories seem to indicate that continued high prices limit the consumption of corn. Demand for corn in the domestic feed industry and related industries has declined slightly from a year ago, while exports have been affected by higher prices, which have increased domestic stocks. In the most recent quarter, the implied demand for US corn fell 6% year-on-year.

In addition, the biofuel industry, which consumes huge amounts of food, has also experienced a decline in production. The biofuel industry in Brazil and the United States, the world's largest supplier of biofuels, has stagnated. In 2011, output fell for the first time in 10 years. According to the data from the International Energy Agency, the world's daily production of biofuels has dropped from 1,822,000 barrels in 2010 to 1,819 barrels in 2011.

The rapid expansion of the biofuel industry over the past 10 years has been controversial because it has turned corn, sugar, palm oil, and wheat into fuel. Opponents criticized the industry for causing prices of agricultural products (10.77, 0.16, 1.51%) to rise. Analysts said that the slowdown in the growth of the biofuel industry will have an important impact on the agricultural product market and may ease the pressure on food prices. According to statistics, the US ethanol industry consumes about 40% of the country’s corn production.

In the uncertain future, although the recent grain prices have declined, due to the fact that food prices are closely related to the global inflation situation, the price of food in 2012 is still full of uncertainties under the premise of uncertain global inflation. Sex.

Today, food prices in some countries have rebounded. The Russians have been very annoyed lately. According to data released by the Russian analysis agency SovEcon, the price of wheat in Russia has risen. The price of the third-grade milled wheat rose by 2.1%, and the price of the fourth-grade milled wheat rose by 1.7%. At the same time, the price of flour rose by 1.7%, and feed wheat price rose by 2.3%. Some Russians complained that it was the large amount of grain used for export that caused a shortage of domestic supplies, which caused price increases.

The World Economic Outlook 2012 released by the World Bank recently pointed out that although the increase in international food prices has slowed in recent months, food security in the poorest countries, including the Horn of Africa, remains a major concern. The future is full of uncertainty.