Pre-holiday agricultural product prices will not change policy trends

In the near future, the country will not have more stringent policies to regulate grain prices. However, in the long run, food prices are related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The country still has the ability and ability to stabilize the prices of agricultural products and protect the quality of life of residents.

One week before the Mid-Autumn National Day holiday, domestic agricultural product market prices rose slightly, and the increase in edible vegetable oil, sugar, and pork prices was relatively significant. In the past week, domestic soybean oil prices have risen by 200 yuan per ton, sugar by 100 yuan per ton, and pork prices have increased by 200-800 yuan per ton. According to recent statistics released by the Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices (CPI) rose by 3.5% year-on-year in August, a 22-month high. A spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, Sheng Laiyun, said: The increase in CPI in August mainly came from the rise in agricultural product prices.

At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice requesting that price control departments in various localities strengthen price supervision during the two-week period and regulate the market price order. The notification requires that all localities should strengthen the supervision of the prices of foodstuffs, edible vegetable oils, and meat, poultry, egg and vegetable milk and other foods, and focus on investigating the behaviors of operators who make use of festivals to fabricate and spread price information, maliciously hoarding and other means to drive up prices, and the number of shortages. False positive, shoddy and so on disguised price increase behavior. The circular emphasized that the competent pricing departments in various localities must intensify law enforcement inspections, crack down on all kinds of price violations that disrupt the market order, and maintain the normal market price order.

Based on the above information, some market participants expect that the country will have further regulatory measures introduced to curb agricultural product prices. Well, we can't help but ask: Will the country introduce further measures to regulate and control? In our view, although rising food prices have a greater impact on the consumption level, it directly affects the cost of living and the quality of life of consumers, especially for low-income people. However, at this time point, it will not easily introduce new policies to suppress food prices.

First of all, the current harvest season is about to enter the harvest season. The better food prices will actually increase farmers' income and increase farmers' enthusiasm for planting. This narrows the gap between urban and rural areas, increases the income of farmers, and improves the living standards of farmers, while ensuring a steady increase in China's grain production. The continuous introduction of regulatory measures to suppress food prices, will only make the farmers chilling, planting willingness to shrink. This will inevitably affect the future of grain production. Such a policy may cause the food price to fall into the “higher and higher” cycle.

Second, the current rise in pork prices is a normal result of the tight supply of pork. It is not maliciously pushing prices up. In July-August, the epidemic of pigs in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River spread, and the mortality rate of pigs in some areas was high, resulting in a recent decline in the number of live pigs in the South. The change of weather in the northern autumn at the beginning of the autumn has also led to the outbreak of a large area of ​​pig hog fever in Liaoning Province, while the incidence of small-scale pigs in other regions has also shown signs of recovery. These are the actual difficulties in the pork market. If regardless of the actual situation, at the expense of the interests of farmers in exchange for lower meat prices, then whether the future will face no meat to buy the situation?

Once again, the rise in food prices is also caused by the international environment. Even if it is regulated, the effect may be limited. This year, many countries suffered from a reduction in grain production. This was particularly true in Russia. Wheat output was reduced by more than 40%, and exports were urgently restricted. The move triggered a series of chain reactions, leading to a general rise in international food prices. For China, this is directly reflected in the price of cooking oil. Because most of China’s soybean oil consumption depends on imported soybeans and soybean oil, rising international prices will directly reflect our production costs. This is also the reason why regulation is difficult to carry out.