Nitrogen Fertilizer: Overcapacity is still in the shadow

Talking about the production and sales of nitrogen fertilizer this year, companies generally feel that it is not bad. According to Li Baoquan, Manager of Nitrogen Fertilizer Company of Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry Group, the urea market is running better before September this year. The price is basically stable at 1900-2200 yuan per ton; the prices of small nitrogen fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate, ammonium bicarbonate and ammonium chloride are also All of them are higher. The profit rate of the entire nitrogen fertilizer production industry is better than last year. According to relevant data, the profit rate of the industry last year was about 1.73%, which is about 4.3% this year.

This situation was also approved by Mao Guobin, manager of the sales company of Hubei Saning Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. He said that this year, the nitrogen fertilizer market is in a tight balance in the first half of the year, and it will become saturated in the second half of the year. In general, the nitrogen fertilizer market this year showed three characteristics. First, the operating rate was significantly higher than last year. The second is that the increase in cost drives up the rigid rise in product costs. This year, the price of raw natural gas for gas-headed enterprises has generally risen; the price of raw coal for coal-head enterprises has increased by 200-300 yuan per ton compared with the same period of last year. At the same time, electricity and labor costs also rose. Therefore, the cost of ammonia for this year rose by 200 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the cost of urea rose by 200 to 300 yuan. Third, the increase in product sales prices is greater than the cost increase. This year, the sales price of urea was 300 yuan higher than that of last year, and the sales price of synthetic ammonia rose by more than 400 yuan over the same period.

China National Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association statistics also confirmed this. It is understood that from January to October this year, the country's nitrogen fertilizer production was 32.22 million tons (equivalent), an increase of 4.5% year-on-year. The association expects annual domestic nitrogen fertilizer production will reach 38.6 million tons. This year, the overall efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer companies was better than last year. From January to September, the main business income of nitrogen fertilizer industry was 215.17 billion yuan, an increase of 34.6% year-on-year; the profit was 9.36 billion yuan, an increase of 350.3% year-on-year, and the sales margin was about 4.35%.

Although the current sales situation is not bad, for nitrogen fertilizer companies, the topic they discuss is still the old problem that has constrained the industry for several years - excess capacity.

Shen Wende, general manager of sales headquarters of CNOOC Chemical Co., Ltd., said that in recent years, there are many new nitrogen fertilizer installations in China, and the production capacity is far greater than the domestic demand for agriculture and industry. Moreover, the production companies inside and outside the industry have joined this field one after another this year. There are many projects and the production capacity is increasing. He believes that from the perspective of current production capacity and projects under construction, the overcapacity of nitrogen fertilizer production in China in the next 3 to 5 years is a serious problem. "Last year, the nitrogen fertilizer production capacity reached 66 million tons, and it will reach 70 million tons or more by the end of the 12th Five-year Plan. However, it is becoming increasingly difficult for urea surplus to be digested through exports, mainly because of the substantial increase in global supply in the next five years. Except for China, the global expansion of urea capacity in resource-constrained countries is relatively large, with a global urea supply of 152 million tons in 2010, close to 200 million tons by 2015, and an annual increase of more than 5%, while the increase in demand over the same period is only 3%.” Shen Wende said. He said that according to statistics from China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, 3 million tons of nitrogen fertilizer production capacity will be withdrawn in 2010, and 3 million to 5 million tons of production capacity will be withdrawn this year. The country will use chemical fertilizer as a strategic resource. It will be increasingly difficult to adjust excess capacity through exports. Even if China's tariffs are liberalized, the competitiveness of enterprises will become weaker and weaker. At present, the price of urea is falling, coal prices are rising, and natural gas is also rising in price. By the end of the winter, companies are basically halving production or stopping production. It is unrealistic to attempt to adjust excess capacity through exports.

In response to this, many business executives proposed countermeasures to treat excess nitrogen.

Wang Nairen, deputy general manager of Henan Xinlianxin Fertilizer Co., Ltd., said: “There are two ways. One is to develop agrochemical services and technological innovation in a down-to-earth manner; the other is to vigorously implement a low-cost strategy. Fertilizer, as a support for agricultural products, must be high quality. It is also cheap. Product innovation is the inevitable requirement for adapting to the competition in the future."

Huang Xiaobing, general manager of Huanong Agricultural Resources Chain Co., Ltd., said that the next two to three years will be the key period for the adjustment, transformation, and upgrading of the nitrogen fertilizer industry in China. At present, many enterprises have relied on the dependence on Shanxi anthracite and started to use resources such as pulverized coal and bituminous coal. In addition, the technological structure of the company is also being adjusted, and the pressurized gasification technology of coal-water slurry and aerospace furnaces are all promoting the technological upgrading of the entire industry. The process of such transformation is very painful. Enterprises with poor competitiveness will be eliminated and new batches of enterprises suitable for future development will gradually rise up.

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